Trump’s Tariff Mishegas

Why has Donald Trump gone crazy with tariffs? The most beautiful word in the English language, forsooth?

It’s biology, stupid. More exactly, it is socio-biology. What’s that? This is a theory that explains modern behavior on the basis of what it took millions of years ago when we were in the trees or caves, barely upright on two feet, to leave progeny to the next generation.

For example, why is it that men have a better sense of direction than women as a general rule? The cave man had to hunt for prey, sometimes dozens of miles away. If he couldn’t find his way back, he tended to leave fewer children than otherwise. Those who survived this long trip left their “selfish genes” to a greater degree than did others. Why is it that women are more meticulous and into cleanliness than men on average? They stayed home with the children. If the cave was dirty, or they couldn’t tell the difference between poisonous and healthy berries and mushrooms, they, too, spread their genes less effectively.

What in bloody blue blazes does any of this have to do with tariffs? It is this. In that bygone era, we lived in groups of 10, 15, maybe 20. All were relatives. We didn’t trade with each other any more than trade now occurs within the average small family. If one such group saw another, they didn’t trade with the other; rather, they tried to kill them. So, the “gene” for trade did not hardly improve genetic survivability.

The counter argument against this hypothesis is archeology. Dated tens and twenty thousands of years ago were found caches of hundreds, thousands, of pots, spears, cookware, etc. We humans still lived in small groups, tribes of only several hundreds of people each. The only way to account for such vast hordes of early capital equipment was specialization and the division of labor, namely, trade.

So, yes, there are some tendencies for trade within the human breast. But these are superficial, dated back only so far as the beginnings of human history. Lack of trade from millions of years ago is far more profound, deeply seated.

Not all of us are infected by this intellectual socio-biological virus as are others. There seems to be a strain of it residing particularly amongst Republicans. Pat Buchanan, George W. Bush, Willis Hawley, Herbert Hoover, William McKinley, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Reed Smoot, also suffered from this debility. There were the “McKinley Tariff of 1890 … the Morrill Tariff of 1861 and the Fordney-McCumber Tariff of 1922.” The Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 put the word “great” into “Great Depression.”

Thanks to biology, Donald Trump can no more resist tariffs than can a dog refrain from howling at the moon, even though he is no longer a wolf. Yes, as he is so fond of repeating, America was prosperous during the McKinley tariff era, but this is to commit the logical fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc. Just because A precedes B, or accompanies B, it does not follow that A causes B. No, the country did well during that time despite protectionism not because of it.

What is in it for us in the future, given that Trump will not listen to rhyme or reason on this matter? Some thousands of economists signed a petition to ward off the Smoot-Hawley debacle, to no avail. I predict the same will take place during this epoch of economic insanity. I predict that in less than two years, if this maniac cannot be persuaded to give up his biologically determined mishegas, virtually every Republican Senator up for reelection will lose, and lose big, and the House will turn strongly Democratic. Then and only then will we be able to put this economic stultification behind us, and stop Adam Smith from spinning in his grave.